Modellierung der allgemeinen ozeanischen Dynamik zur Korrektur und Interpretation von Satellitendaten

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Validation of MPI-ESM Decadal Hindcast Experiments with Terrestrial Water Storage Variations as Observed by the GRACE Satellite Mission

Time-variations in the gravity field as observed by the GRACE mission provide for the first time quantitative estimates of the terrestrial water storage (TWS) at monthly resolution over one decade (2002–2011). TWS from GRACE is applied here to validate three different ensemble sets of decadal hindcasts performed with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM within the German research project MiKlip. Those experiments differ in terms of the applied low (LR) and medium (MR) spatial resolution configuration of MPI-ESM, as well as by the applied ensemble initialization strategy, where ocean-only (b0) is replaced by atmosphere and ocean (b1) anomaly initialization. Moderately positive skill scores of the initialized hindcasts are obtained both with respect to the zero anomaly forecast and the uninitialized projections in particular for lead year 1 in moderate to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Skill scores gradually increase when moving from b0-LR to b1-LR, and less prominent also for b1-LR to b1-MR, thereby documenting improvements of the MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction system during the most recent years

Atmospheric Contributions to Global Ocean Tides for Satellite Gravimetry

To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America

UTLS temperature validation of MPI-ESM decadal hindcast experiments with GPS radio occultations

Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperature data are used to validate MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model) decadal hindcast experiments in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region between 300 hPa and 10 hPa (8 km and 32 km) for the time period between 2002 and 2011. The GPSRO dataset is unique since it is very precise, calibration independent and covers the globe better than the usual radiosonde dataset. In addition it is vertically finer resolved than any of the existing satellite temperature measurements available for the UTLS and provides now a unique one decade long temperature validation dataset. The initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal hindcast runs mostly increases the skill of the atmospheric temperatures when compared to uninitialized climate projections with very high skill scores for lead-year one, and gradually decreases for the later lead-years. A comparison between two different initialization sets (b0, b1) of the low-resolution (LR) MPI-ESM shows increased skills in b1-LR in most parts of the UTLS in particular in the tropics. The medium resolution (MR) MPI-ESM initializations are characterized by reduced temperature biases in the uninitialized runs as compared to observations and a better capturing of the high latitude northern hemisphere interannual polar vortex variability as compared to the LR model version. Negative skills are found for the b1-MR hindcasts however in the regions around the mid-latitude tropospheric jets on both hemispheres and in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause in comparison to the b1-LR variant. It is interesting to highlight that none of the model experiments can reproduce the observed positive temperature trend in the tropical tropopause region since 2001 as seen by GPSRO data

Modelling spatial covariances for terrestrial water storage variations verified with synthetic GRACE-FO data

Gridded terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations observed by GRACE or GRACE-FO typically show a spatial correlation structure that is both anisotropic (direction-dependent) and non-homogeneous (latitude-dependent). We introduce a new correlation model to represent this structure. This correlation model allows GRACE and GRACE-FO data users to get realistic correlations of the TWS grids without the need to derive them from the formal spherical harmonic uncertainties. Further, we found that the modelled correlations fit the spatial structure of uncertainties to a greater extent in a simulation environment. The model is based on a direction-dependent Bessel function of the first kind which allows to model the longer correlation lengths in the longitudinal direction via a shape parameter, and also to account for residual GRACE striping errors that might remain after spatial filtering. The global scale and shape parameters vary with latitude by means of even Legendre polynomials. The correlation between two points transformed to covariance by scaling with the standard deviations of each point. The covariance model is valid on the sphere which is empirically verified with a Monte-Carlo approach. The covariance model is subsequently applied to 5 years of simulated GRACE-FO data which allow for immediate validation with true uncertainties from the differences between the input mass signal and the recovered gravity fields. Four different realisations of the point standard deviations were tested: two based on the formal errors provided with the simulated Stokes coefficients, and two based on empirical standard deviations, where the first is spatially variant and temporally invariant, and the second spatially invariant and temporally variant. These four different covariance models are applied to compute TWS time series uncertainties for both the fifty largest discharge basins and regular grid cells over the continents. These four models are compared with the true uncertainties available in the simulations. The two empirically-based covariance models provide more realistic TWS uncertainties than the ones based on the formal errors. Especially, the empirically-based covariance models are better in reflecting the spatial pattern of the uncertainties of the simulated GRACE-FO data including their latitude dependence. However, these modelled uncertainties are in general too large. But with only one global scaling factor, a statistical test confirms the equivalence between the empirically-based covariance model with temporally variable point standard deviations and the true uncertainties. Thus at the end, this covariance model represents the closest fit in the simulation environment. The simulated GRACE-FO data are assumed to be very realistic which is why we recommend the new covariance model to be further investigated for the characterisation of real GRACE and GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage data

The Influence of Sediments, Lithosphere and Upper Mantle (Anelastic) With Lateral Heterogeneity on Ocean Tide Loading and Ocean Tide Dynamics

Ocean tide loading (OTL) and ocean tide dynamics (OTD) are known to be affected by Earth's internal structures, with the latter being affected by the self-attraction and loading (SAL) potential. Combining the 3D earth models Lyon and LITHO1.0, we construct a hybrid model to quantify the coupled effect of sediments, oceanic and continental lithosphere, and anelastic upper mantle on OTL and OTD. Compared to PREM, this more realistic 3D model produces significantly larger vertical OTL displacement by up to 3.9, 2.6, and 0.1 mm for the M2, K1, and Mf OTL, respectively. Moreover, it shows a smaller vector difference of 0.1 mm and a smaller amplitude difference of 0.2 mm than PREM with OTL observations at 663 Global Navigation Satellite System stations, a confirmation of the cumulative effect due to these earth features. On the other hand, we find a resonant impact of wider extent and larger magnitude on OTD, especially for the M2 and K1 tides. Specifically, this impact is concentrated in the ranges 0–6 mm and 0–1.5 mm for M2 and K1, respectively, which is considerably larger than the impact on SAL (mostly in the ranges 0–2 mm and 0–1.0 mm, respectively). Since the effect on vertical displacement is at a similar level compared to the accuracy of modern data-constrained ocean tide models that require correction of the geocentric tide by loading induced vertical displacements, we regard its consideration to be potentially beneficial in OTD modeling

Gravitationally Consistent Mean Barystatic Sea Level Rise From Leakage‐Corrected Monthly GRACE Data

Gravitationally consistent solutions of the Sea Level Equation from leakage‐corrected monthly‐mean GFZ RL06 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) Stokes coefficients reveal that barystatic sea level averaged over the whole global ocean was rising by 1.72 mm a−1 during the period April 2002 until August 2016. This rate refers to a truely global ocean averaging domain that includes all polar and semienclosed seas. The result corresponds to 2.02 mm a−1 mean barystatic sea level rise in the open ocean with a 1,000 km coastal buffer zone as obtained from a direct spatial integration of monthly GRACE data. The bias of +0.3 mm a−1 is caused by below‐average barystatic sea level rise in close proximity to coastal mass losses induced by the smaller gravitational attraction of the remaining continental ice and water masses. Alternative spherical harmonics solutions from CSR, JPL, and TU Graz reveal open‐ocean rates between 1.94 and 2.08 mm a−1, thereby demonstrating that systematic differences among the processing centers are much reduced in the latest release. We introduce in this paper a new method to approximate spatial leakage from the differences of two differently filtered global gravity fields. A globally constant and time‐invariant scale factor required to obtain full leakage from those filter differences is found to be 3.9 for GFZ RL06 when filtered with DDK3, and lies between 3.9 and 4.4 for other processing centers. Spatial leakage is estimated for every month in terms of global grids, thereby providing also valuable information of intrabasin leakage that is potentially relevant for hydrologic and hydrometeorological applications

A superconducting gravimeter on the island of Heligoland for the high-accuracy determination of regional ocean tide loading signals of the North Sea

The superconducting gravimeter GWR iGrav 047 has been installed on the small offshore island of Heligoland in the North Sea approximately at sea level with the overall aim of high-accuracy determination of regional tidal and non-tidal ocean loading signals. For validation, a second gravimeter (gPhoneX 152) has been setup within a gravity gradiometer approach to observe temporal gravity variations in parallel on the upper land of Heligoland. This study covers the determination of regional ocean tide loading (OTL) parameters based on the two continuous gravimetric time-series after elimination of the height-dependent gravity component by empirical transfer functions between the local sea level from a nearby tide gauge and local attraction effects. After reduction of all gravity recordings to sea level, both gravimeters provide very similar height-independent OTL parameters for the eight major diurnal and semidiurnal waves with estimated amplitudes between 0.3 nm s−2 (Q1) and 11 nm s−2 (M2) and RMSE of 0.1–0.2 nm s−2 for 2 yr of iGrav 047 observations and a factor of 2 worse for 1.5 yr of gPhoneX 152 observations. The mean absolute OTL amplitude differences are 0.3 nm s−2 between iGrav 047 and gPhoneX 152, 0.4 nm s−2 between iGrav 047 and the ocean tide model FES2014b and 0.7 nm s−2 between gPhoneX 152 and FES2014b which is in good agreement with the uncertainty estimations. As by-product of this study, OTL vertical displacements are estimated from the height-independent OTL gravity results from iGrav 047 applying proportionality factors dh/dg for the eight major waves. These height-to-gravity ratios and the corresponding phase shifts are derived from FES2014b. The OTL vertical displacements from iGrav 047 are estimated with amplitudes between 0.4 mm (Q1) and 5.1 mm (M2) and RMSE of 0.1–0.7 mm. These OTL amplitudes agree with FES2014b within 0.0 (M2) and 0.8 mm (K1) with a mean difference of 0.3 mm only. The OTL amplitudes from almost 5 yr of GNSS observations show deviations of up to 6 mm (M2) compared to vertical displacements from both iGrav 047 and FES2014b, which suggests systematic effects included in the estimation of OTL vertical displacements from GNSS. With the demonstrated accuracy, height-independent sensitivity in terms of gravity and vertical displacements along with the high temporal resolution and the even better performance with length of time-series, iGrav 047 delivers the best observational signal for OTL which is representative for a large part of the North Sea

The GFZ GRACE RL06 Monthly Gravity Field Time Series: Processing Details and Quality Assessment

Time-variable gravity field models derived from observations of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, whose science operations phase ended in June 2017 after more than 15 years, enabled a multitude of studies of Earth’s surface mass transport processes and climate change. The German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), routinely processing such monthly gravity fields as part of the GRACE Science Data System, has reprocessed the complete GRACE mission and released an improved GFZ GRACE RL06 monthly gravity field time series. This study provides an insight into the processing strategy of GFZ RL06 which has been considerably changed with respect to previous GFZ GRACE releases, and modifications relative to the precursor GFZ RL05a are described. The quality of the RL06 gravity field models is analyzed and discussed both in the spectral and spatial domain in comparison to the RL05a time series. All results indicate significant improvements of about 40% in terms of reduced noise. It is also shown that the GFZ RL06 time series is a step forward in terms of consistency, and that errors of the gravity field coefficients are more realistic. These findings are confirmed as well by independent validation of the monthly GRACE models, as done in this work by means of ocean bottom pressure in situ observations and orbit tests with the GOCE satellite. Thus, the GFZ GRACE RL06 time series allows for a better quantification of mass changes in the Earth system.DFG, FOR 2736, New Refined Observations of Climate Change from Spaceborne Gravity Missions (NEROGRAV)BMBF, 03F0654A, GRACE-FO - Projektmanagement, Aufbau eines wissenschaftlichen Auswertesystems und Aufbau eines GRACE-FO Projektbüro

Modeling gravimetric signatures of third-degree ocean tides and their detection in superconducting gravimeter records

We employ the barotropic, data-unconstrained ocean tide model TiME to derive an atlas for degree-3 tidal constituentsincluding monthly to terdiurnal tidal species. The model is optimized with respect to the tide gauge data set TICON-td that isextended to include the respective tidal constituents of diurnal and higher frequencies. The tide gauge validation shows a rootmean-square (RMS) deviation of 0.9–1.3mm for the individual species. We further model the load tide-induced gravimetric signals by two means (1) a global load Love number approach and (2) evaluating Greens-integrals at 16 selected locations of superconducting gravimeters. The RMS deviation between the amplitudes derived using both methods is below 0.5 nGal (1 nGal = 0.01 nm/s2 ) when excluding near-coastal gravimeters. Utilizing ETERNA-x, a recently upgraded and reworked tidal analysis software, we additionally derive degree-3 gravimetric tidal constituents for these stations, based on a hypothesis-free wave grouping approach.We demonstrate that this analysis is feasible, yielding amplitude predictions of only a few 10 nGal, and that it agrees with the modeled constituents on a level of 63–80% of the mean signal amplitude. Larger deviations are only found for lowest amplitude signals, near-coastal stations, or shorter and noisier data sets